LONDON — Donald Trump’s return to power could dramatically alter the course of the wars raging in the Middle East and Europe.
From the rubble of Israel’s deadly military campaigns in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon to the battlefields of eastern Ukraine where Russian forces are advancing, the United States’ election has for months hung over these conflicts involving allies dependent on support from Washington.
Celebrations quickly rang out in Israel on Wednesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on what he labeled “history’s greatest comeback” — a jubilant reaction that may fuel concerns of further escalation as the country presses its offensive in northern Gaza and prepares for an Iranian retaliatory attack.
Another U.S. ally will likely be feeling less emboldened.
Ukrainian officials offered their own praise of Trump, but now face an even more uncertain future given doubts over whether he will maintain the Biden administration’s support for the country’s ailing defense — now facing North Korean troops bolstering the Kremlin’s quest to up the pressure on Kyiv to agree to unfavorable terms.
The president-elect is condemned by critics as a dangerous isolationist who emboldens strongmen and hailed by supporters as a forthright defender of American interests, and most observers at least agree that a second Trump era will be unpredictable.
What is certain, said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, is that “there will be surprises.”Israel thrilled at Trump win
In Israel, the country’s right-wing leadership was thrilled by Trump’s victory, two officials there told NBC News — but they said that excitement was tempered by concerns that the Biden administration would ramp up pressure in its final days.
Israel’s most ultranationalist ministers were among the first to congratulate Trump on his success, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich openly celebrating on social media.
Trump’s success rippled throughout the Arab world, where officials told NBC News they watched the count unfold with a mix of surprise and fascination, while other observers expressed concern that the result could embolden Israel to further escalate an already-expanding conflict.
The Biden administration has ramped up efforts that have so far failed to secure cease-fires to end Israel’s deadly assault on Gaza and secure the release of hostages still held by Hamas, as well as halt Israel’s bombardment and fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Trump has broadly called for an end to the war in Gaza, but he has yet to clearly outline how his incoming administration might help expedite that. He also said during the campaign that he would support what he described as Israel’s “right to win its war on terror.”
One Israeli official suggested that Netanyahu could look to end Israel’s offensive in Gaza early in Trump’s term as a way of handing the Republican a quick diplomatic victory amid relief over Vice President Kamala Harris’ defeat.
“Nobody in Israel wanted Harris. Nobody trusted her over here,” an official said.
Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said Netanyahu was undoubtedly “betting on Donald Trump” after having “run the clock on Joe Biden.”
Gerges said he feared that under Trump, Washington, already Israel’s biggest arms supplier, would “basically give Netanyahu whatever he wants — in particular, a green light to not only continue the war in Gaza and Lebanon but even to escalate the fight against Iran itself.” Already, U.S. spending on Israel’s military operations reached more than $17.9 billion from Oct. 7 last year to Sept. 30, according to Brown University’s Costs of War Project.
Recalling Trump’s 2016 presidency, Gerges said in a phone interview Tuesday that the Republican had already shown a willingness to “go beyond the call of duty to give Netanyahu everything,” including his controversial decision to officially recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and his recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the contested Golan Heights.
Despite those concerns, Gerges said the overall sentiment in the Arab world was that ultimately it didn’t “matter who wins the White House” as “American foreign policy is historically wedded back to Israel.”
Many Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where Israel believes Trump’s win will mean more freedom to expand settlements, appeared to share that sentiment.
“As a Palestinian, I think it doesn’t matter,” said Riyad Awad, 61, in the central West Bank city of Ramallah on Wednesday. “Republican or Democratic — they didn’t help us.”
In video captured by NBC News’ crew on the ground in Gaza, Palestinians could be seen gathered in a makeshift shelter in Khan Younis watching the election results roll in on a television screen.
Some expressed deep concern over Trump’s victory, while others were curious about whether he might ultimately be the right figure to stop the fighting after months of failed U.S. efforts.
“He said that he’s going to end the war,” said 19-year-old Hussam Alsharif, who was displaced from his home farther south in Gaza by Israel’s offensive. “He’s a man of his own word. Once he calls the shots, no one can do anything but obey him.”
Ukraine offers public praise
Ukraine sought to project a similar lack of concern over how the result might transform America’s approach to the war in Europe.
Trump said he would be able to resolve Russia’s invasion before he even takes office, which would surely require huge concessions that Kyiv deems unacceptable. He has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and incorrectly blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for starting the war, while refusing to commit to sending more aid to the embattled country.
Trump will make “attempts at appeasement with the aggressor” — i.e. Russia, said Maksym Kostetskyi, head of the Centre for Policy Making, a think tank based in Kyiv. “I am afraid it would have negative effects on Ukrainian society,” he said, since talking about negotiations when Russia is on the offensive is “absolutely unacceptable.”
Still, Zelenskyy publicly welcomed Trump’s victory, saying he looked forward to an “era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership.”
The U.S. has approved $175 billion of aid to Ukraine, more than any country, since its full-scale invasion by Russia in February 2022. If Trump did withdraw American support, Ukraine’s defense against the Kremlin would take a massive hit. It could well be forced into a surrender involving Putin annexing huge swaths of its territory, as well as promising never to join NATO.
Russian officials, speaking to NBC News, said Moscow expected changes under Trump.
“Less predictability is incoming,” said a Russian diplomat not authorized to speak on the record. “The result is not the most interesting part. The best is what is coming after.”
If a Ukrainian loss doesn’t sound like a big deal to Americans, Putin has signaled he would not stop there, and many Western experts believe that victory could embolden him to attack other Eastern European neighbors.
Then the question would be: Would Trump honor NATO’s central promise, that if one member gets attacked, the others are expected to come to its aid? During his first term, the president suggested he would not — something that would undermine the entire point of the alliance.
In truth, Ukraine has been railing for months against the limits of American support under the Biden administration.
“Trump’s victory means great risks and opportunities,” said Kostetskyi, of the Kyiv-based think tank. “Only time can show where it will take.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
